Elon Musk expressed concerns during an interview with Tucker Carlson that if Donald Trump does not win the 2024 election, it could be the last meaningful election in the U.S. He claims that Democrats are bringing in large numbers of undocumented immigrants through a secretive, illegal process, particularly to swing states.
Musk suggested that this influx could significantly alter voting outcomes, as many of these individuals would eventually gain citizenship and vote predominantly for Democrats.
He warned that this could lead to a permanent Democratic majority, turning the U.S. into a one-party system, similar to how California shifted strongly Democratic after immigration changes in the 1980s.
#ElonMusk expressed concerns during an interview with #TuckerCarlson that if #Trump does not win the 2024 election, it could be the last meaningful #USelection. He claimed that #Democrats are bringing in large numbers of undocumented #immigrants through a secretive, illegal… pic.twitter.com/FhyTPtDDpX
— NewsVoice (@newsvoicemag) October 13, 2024
Swing state Arizona
Newsweek writes that Arizona, long considered a swing state, has undergone a significant demographic shift that could influence the outcome of the 2024 U.S. elections. A large influx of Californians, many of whom bring more progressive political views, is reshaping the state’s political landscape.
This trend may impact the tight races for both the presidency and key congressional seats, such as the U.S. Senate.
In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Arizona has emerged as a key battleground state, and the influx of Californians moving there could prove decisive. According to recent U.S. Census data, over 74,000 Californians relocated to Arizona in 2022 alone, and their impact on the state’s political balance may help Vice President Kamala Harris secure a critical win in the Grand Canyon State.
In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly beat Donald Trump in Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes, signaling a shift in a state that had long been a Republican stronghold.
Arizona had previously voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and against Barack Obama in both of his presidential campaigns. But in recent years, Arizona’s political landscape has shifted dramatically, with Democrats making significant gains.
In 2010, Republicans held both of Arizona’s U.S. Senate seats, a supermajority in the state legislature, and every statewide office. Today, Democrats hold the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state positions. Both state senators were elected on Democratic tickets, although Senator Kyrsten Sinema later switched to run as an independent.
As Sinema steps aside, Californian migrants could also impact Arizona’s upcoming Senate race. Polls show Democrat Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake, with the newcomers from California potentially giving Democrats an edge.
Mark Shanahan, an expert in U.S. presidential politics at the University of Surrey, believes this influx of Californians has played a key role in making Arizona more competitive for Democrats. Speaking to Newsweek, Shanahan explained how the demographic shift has influenced voting patterns.
“The influx of Californians to Arizona isn’t homogenous,” Shanahan noted.
“They cut across age boundaries from young tech workers through agricultural laborers to retirees. But they are more likely to have a history of voting Democrat, or at least be anti-Trump, and willing to be swayed towards Harris over Trump and Gallego over Lake.”
Shanahan also pointed out that most new residents from California tend to settle in Phoenix and Tucson, urban areas that have become Democratic strongholds. Meanwhile, rural parts of the state remain firmly Republican.
“Relatively few thousand new Democrat votes could make all the difference in a very tightly contested race,” he added.
Dafydd Townley, a lecturer in American politics at the University of Portsmouth, emphasized that while migration may play a role, other issues—particularly abortion—are likely to be more influential.
“There is an assumption that those migrating to Arizona will be Democrats, however, California does have pockets of strong Republican voters that might be included in those leaving the Golden State,” Townley told Newsweek. “It’s unlikely that the electoral votes for Arizona will be decided on this one factor.”
Arizona voters are expected to decide whether to protect abortion rights within the State Constitution, a move that could galvanize voters on both sides of the issue.
A recent AARP poll of 600 likely Arizona voters showed Trump leading Harris by just two points, with 49 percent of respondents backing the former president versus 47 percent for the vice president. The poll, conducted in late September, has a four-point margin of error, suggesting the race is still up for grabs.
The race for Arizona, once a Republican bastion, is poised to be one of the most closely watched contests in the 2024 election. Whether Californian migrants or pressing social issues will sway the outcome remains to be seen. Still, the state’s new political landscape guarantees it will be a crucial battleground for both parties.
Sources
- Newsweek: How an Influx of Californians Could Decide Arizona’s Election Result
- Tucker Carlson Network