Murad Sagydzade, president of the Middle East Studies Center, provides a detailed account of why Syria collapsed swiftly, culminating in Damascus’s fall. NewsVoice summarizes his analysis in RT.
The swift collapse culminated in the fall of Damascus by December 8, 2024. This event was not merely a consequence of immediate military actions but the result of a long-simmering combination of internal and external pressures.
Internal preassures and war fatigue
- Economic Inequality and decline: Years of warfare exacerbated economic issues, leading to increased inequality, a brain drain, and the collapse of state infrastructure.
- Corruption and political fragmentation: The political elite’s corruption and fragmentation weakened the regime’s governance and control.
- Societal discontent: A society worn down by years of conflict and lack of prospects was deeply fractured, contributing to the regime’s vulnerability.
External pressures
- Geopolitical rivalries: Syria became a battleground for international and regional powers, with various nations like the US and Israel and regional players like Türkiye and Saudi Arabia supporting opposition forces to advance their agendas.
- Support for opposition: Western and Arab states backed the opposition, while terrorist groups like HTS gained ground, further destabilizing the region.
- Loss of allies: The weakening of Iran and Hezbollah, key ally of Assad, due to their own conflicts (notably with Israel), reduced the regime’s external support. Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine also meant less military backing for Assad.
Military and strategic failures
- Loss of military control: The Syrian army, demoralized and under-resourced, could not effectively resist the rapid advance of opposition forces, particularly in key cities like Homs and Damascus.
- Strategic missteps: Assad’s regime relied heavily on military solutions rather than political dialogue, which left it isolated and vulnerable.
Leadership and personal factors
- Assad’s circumstances: Personal tragedies and health issues within Assad’s family might have influenced his decision-making, leading to a more conciliatory approach to stepping down.
- Leadership style: Assad, who was not initially destined for political leadership, might not have had the same ideological drive as some other regional leaders, influencing his readiness to relinquish power.
#BasharalAssad https://t.co/ivsEIu58M8
— NewsVoice (@newsvoicemag) December 9, 2024
Timing and momentum
- Unexpected Speed: The rapid escalation in Idlib and the subsequent advance on Damascus capitalized on a moment when Assad’s forces were significantly weakened, leading to a swift collapse of control.
Shift in regional dynamics
- Wider Regional Transformation: The events in Syria are part of a broader plan to reshape Middle Eastern politics, reducing the influence of the Axis of Resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) and altering power balances in favour of Western and Israeli interests.
Sources and related
- Murad Sagydzade: Why did Syria fall so fast and what happens next?
- HSE University: Murad Sagydzade
- Saul Sadka: Commentary
- Foreignpolicy.com (Charles Lister): Why Assad’s Regime Is Collapsing So Quickly
- Al Jazeera (staff writers): What happened in Syria? How did al-Assad fall?
- Los Angeles Times (2016): In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA