In an interview with Jan Jekielek on American Thought Leaders at The Epoch Times, Michael Shellenberger, the American author, journalist, and inaugural CBR Chair of Politics, Censorship, and Free Speech, declared that the era of climate extremism appears to be winding down.
Shellenberger, known for his book Apocalypse Never (2020), argued that alarmist narratives have lost legitimacy due to improved human welfare metrics, exposed data manipulations, and shifting priorities toward energy abundance.
Declining Legitimacy of Alarmism
Shellenberger pointed to recent vandalism at Stonehenge as a lingering sign of extremism but emphasised its diminishing public support. He highlighted billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates’ recent comments urging a holistic view of climate issues tied to human progress.
”On those metrics, we’re doing well,” Shellenberger said, noting reduced deaths from extreme weather events like hurricanes and floods, alongside lower disaster costs. He attributed this resilience to societal advancements, countering claims of escalating climate threats.
He also referenced censorship incidents, including The Epoch Times being flagged by Facebook for sharing accurate data on stable Arctic sea ice levels over the past 20 years. Shellenberger criticised ”activist scientists” for manipulating models to suggest accelerating sea level rise, while reliable tide gauge data from the 1850s show no such trend. ”The planet is changing, and humans have an influence,” he acknowledged, but stressed that the impact is smaller than previously believed, revising his own views post-Apocalypse Never.
Energy Demands Trump Net Zero Goals
The conversation shifted to energy policy, where Shellenberger observed a pivot away from ”net zero” emissions and degrowth ideologies. At a recent Real Clear Politics roundtable in Washington, D.C., experts focused on powering AI data centres rather than emissions reductions. ”Is net zero dead? Is degrowth dead?” Jekielek asked, to which Shellenberger replied that policymakers across parties now prioritise energy supply amid rising electricity demands and prices driven by renewables.
In the U.S., he described a ”pro-energy growth” stance, fueled by abundant natural gas and nuclear potential. Europe, however, remains mired in high costs from wind reliance and untapped gas reserves, with Germany facing deindustrialisation. Shellenberger predicted the political left must embrace natural gas and nuclear—once taboo—to meet future needs.
Human Influence and Benefits of Warming
Drawing from a recent interview with climate scientist Judith Curry, Shellenberger estimated human activities account for about 50% of observed warming, including land use and emissions, far below the conventional 100%.
Curry suggested the planet might otherwise be cooling, and Shellenberger underscored that warming is preferable to cooling, as cold-related deaths far outnumber those from heat. ”Warming can be good,” he said, flipping apocalyptic narratives on their head.
He attributed alarmism to deeper motivations: Malthusian anti-humanism viewing people as a ”cancer on the earth,” psychological needs for purpose amid lost faith, and echoes of past apocalypses like nuclear war. This has driven extremism, from art vandalism to mental health crises among youth, despite evidence of global greening from CO2 and record coral growth on the Great Barrier Reef.
Exposing Data Manipulations
Shellenberger detailed tactics like cherry-picking short-term data, relying on indirect measures (e.g., satellites over tide gauges), and model assumptions to exaggerate trends in sea levels, hurricanes, wildfires, and heat waves. For instance, no increase in landfalling hurricanes over 150 years contradicts alarmist reports using unadjusted satellite data. On wildfires, he blamed poor forest management for high-intensity blazes, dismissing the climate’s role as negligible.
He likened this to ”activist journalism” or propaganda, where preconceived views distort reality. ”They’re barely conscious of it,” he said of scientists and journalists, who justify manipulations with ”word salad” explanations while burying inconvenient data, such as 1930s heat waves downplayed in historical reporting.
Nuclear Renaissance and Societal Shifts
A longtime nuclear advocate, Shellenberger celebrated rising public approval (61% in the U.S.) and tech giants like Meta repurposing plants like Three Mile Island for data centres. He urged building more proven reactors, criticising shutdowns as ”irrational and superstitious” vandalism of clean, reliable technology. Challenges like financing and regulation are surmountable, he argued, drawing parallels to the U.S. military’s flawless nuclear record.
Broader societal trends, Shellenberger noted, reflect a rejection of ”shibboleths” like renewables worship and utopianism. He sees a shift toward nationalism, traditional values, and reality-based thinking post-globalist era, with backlashes against mass migration, transgender policies, and defund-the-police movements. However, he warned of ongoing threats like censorship from entities in the EU, UK, Australia, and Brazil, urging vigilance in this ”exciting and dangerous” transitional period.
Shellenberger’s message: Climate change is real but overstated, driven by ideology over evidence. As energy realities prevail, he envisions a future of abundance, urging a return to empirical truth amid waning alarmism.
