COVID-19 PANDEMIC ANALYSIS. The Covid-19 pandemic is severely exaggerated. The politicians are overreacting causing enormous strain to whole societies, Jan H.af Segerstad warns. “Just look at the numbers so far and you’ll see that Covid-19 acts pretty much within the frame of a normal seasonal flu epidemic”, he says.
Sweden has a population of 10 million people and an annual death rate of 95.000. In 2019 about 35.000 people died from cardiovascular diseases, and 25.000 from cancer.
By the updated statistics of March 19, 2020, Sweden had 1.439 infected by the coronavirus and 11 elderly people dead, who also carried other severe diseases. This corresponds to a death figure of 8 per mille of all infected. In relation to the annual Swedish death rate (95.000), it corresponds to a death figure of only 0,12 per mille.
If this horrific scenario 20-folds, we will get 28.780 infected by the Coronavirus and 220 elderly people dead (the same amount as are killed by the ordinary flue viruses). This also corresponds to a death figure of 8 per mille of all infected. In relation to the annual Swedish death rate (95.000), it corresponds to a death figure of 2.3 per mille.
To make the Swedish society survive, the best way is to release the coronavirus “freely”, compared to any other option.
People under 70 have a negligible death rate. The very few who will get severely ill can easily be taken care of.
Only 10% of the Swedish population is more than 70 years old, and we ought to focus on this risk group. Keep these people isolated the best way possible, locate them by postal code, and direct what hospitals can serve them in case of crisis.
Considering the small size of this age-group, and how few will actually be infected, time will be sufficient to gradually organize and advise accordingly.
By Jan H.af Segerstad, former strategic adviser | This article in Swedish