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Geopolitical Storm: US and Russian Elections, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza – What is Happening?

Is there a window of opportunity for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East?

publicerad 15 februari 2024
Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Benjamin Netanyahu.

The outcome of the presidential elections to be held this year in the US and Russia could mean a return to the doctrine of nonviolent co-existence between the US and Russia and the consequent end to Cold War 2.0.

Thus, the Ukrainian conflict would have meant a return to the Cold War between Russia and the US and a reinstallment of the Doctrine of Containment, the basis of which was laid out by George F. Kennan in his essay “The Sources of Soviet Behaviour”, published in Foreign Affairs magazine in 1947 and whose main ideas are summed up in the quote “Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but very sensitive to the logic of force”.

Republican victory in the US?

Joe Biden’s signs of senility, the fentanyl crisis, the high cost of living, and the economy’s possible entry into recession in the coming year would have sunk the Democratic leader’s popularity to 39%.

This could facilitate the triumphant return of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, who, according to a CBS News and YouGov poll, would have the support of 65% of Republican voters to be the Republican nominee.

On the other hand, Donald Trump assured in his networks that “we have never been so close to World War III” and that there must be a “total commitment to dismantle the globalist neoconservative power group responsible for dragging the world into endless wars”.

Consequently, a Republican victory in 2024 would represent the twilight of the Atlanticist strategy of Biden and George Soros to defenestrate Vladimir Putin from power, the signing of a peace agreement in Ukraine, and a return to the doctrine of non-violent co-existence with Russia.

This would mean the enthronement of the G-3 (US, Russia, and China) as “primus inter pares” in global governance and the no end to the obsessive dream of the globalists led by Soros and the Open Society Foundation (OSF) to achieve the balkanization of Russia, “the white whale the globalists have been trying to hunt for decades”.

Ukraine peace deal

The Democrats’ loss of control of Congress after the November mid-term elections has meant that Republicans are scrutinizing future arms aid to Ukraine, estimated to date at $110 billion and in place until last December, as well as a growing wave of political disaffection with Volodymyr Zelensky across the US political spectrum.

The coup de grâce to Ukraine would be the recent Congressional rejection of Biden’s proposed $80 billion in additional military or humanitarian aid to Kyiv, due to outright opposition from the radical Republican wing of Congress led by Donald Trump with the avowed aim of choking Zelensky by economic starvation to force him to sign a peace deal with Putin.

On the other hand, military aid to Israel after the invasion of the Gaza Strip will absorb an important part of the US military budget so that in the event of Trump’s victory in the November Presidential elections, we could see the signing of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia that would put an end to the Ukrainian dispute.

Vladimir Putin is seeking a peace agreement that establishes that Ukraine will not join NATO and that the Ukrainian dispute will be settled with the division of Ukraine into two halves, with the east of the country, including Crimea, the Donbas, Zaporiyia, and Kherson, remaining under Russian control and the centre and west of current Ukraine under Western tutelage.

This frozen conflict is already considered by the US to be a liability due to the unbearable costs involved, making the illustrious Zelensky a burden for the US, which should be gotten rid of immediately, and it is not out of the question that he will be accused of corruption and forced to go into exile in the US.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s downfall

Following Israel’s invasion of Gaza, the disaffection of a civil society that cannot forgive the security failures in the Israeli Defence that led to the murder of 1,200 Israelis and the kidnapping of 220 people by Hamas is growing, with 80% of respondents saying that “the government is mainly responsible for the infiltration of Palestinian militiamen” and 56% saying that “Netanyahu should resign at the end of the current war”, according to a survey by The Jerusalem Post.

In this context, we witnessed the unfortunate death by the IDF of three of the Jewish hostages, mistaking them for Hamas members, which has led to increased mobilization by the families of those kidnapped by Hamas in front of Netanyahu’s residence, whom they hold “personally responsible for their return home alive”.

Consequently, Israeli society’s disaffection with Benjamin Netanyahu due to his nefarious management of the crisis with Hamas and his lack of interest in rescuing the Jewish hostages could lead to a coup by former general and member of the Israeli Emergency Government, Benny Gantz, who leads the Blue and White party.

This would lead to the early calling of new elections with the confessed aim of forming a government of national unity under Yair Lapid, whose primary task would be to reissue the Oslo Accords that would make possible the nonviolent coexistence of two peoples in two states.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu, a nefarious politician who attempted an autocratic coup d’état to subsequently install a presidential regime, could face a criminal trial in which he will be accused of negligence and crimes against human rights, which could lead to a criminal conviction and his definitive departure from the Israeli political scene.

By Germán Gorraiz Lopez, Political analyst


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