Andrew Karybko’s article on Substack discusses the significant steps and challenges involved in ending the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. NewsVoice has summarized.
On February 12, 2025, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced key policy shifts: Ukraine will not join NATO, the U.S. acknowledges Ukraine’s inability to restore its pre-2014 borders, and while the U.S. won’t send troops, it encourages European peacekeeping without the protection of NATO’s Article 5.
This declaration set the stage for peace talks, as Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to negotiate directly. Trump also briefed Ukrainian President Zelensky on these developments, hinting at future bilateral meetings in Saudi Arabia and mutual visits.
The article outlines several critical issues for the peace negotiations.
- First, determining the new border between Russia and Ukraine, where there’s a suggestion that Ukraine might have to relinquish control over Donbass, with a UN-supervised referendum possibly resolving disputes over areas like Zaporozhye.
- Second, the establishment of a demilitarized zone (DMZ) and the roles of peacekeepers, likely from non-Western countries due to the refusal to extend Article 5 protections to EU forces.
- Third, addressing Russia’s objectives of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine, which might involve international oversight by UN peacekeepers to ensure compliance.
- Fourth, the contentious issue of sanctions relief, where Russia seeks the complete lifting of Western sanctions, but a phased approach might be more feasible, potentially tied to Russian compliance with peace agreements.
- Lastly, the need for a new European security architecture to stabilize the region, considering NATO expansions, military deployments, nuclear policies, and emerging arms races.
Karybko concludes that while the path to peace is complex due to these sensitive issues, both leaders are willing to negotiate. The best outcome would be a fair, lasting peace that addresses the root causes of the conflict, although neither side is likely to achieve all its objectives. Diplomacy here is described as an art of navigating the possible, requiring compromise from both parties.