In two insightful articles, Timofey Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club, delves into the evolving geopolitical landscape of 2024, focusing on the dynamics within Asia and the implications of the BRICS expansion.
Bordachev’s analysis presents a world undergoing significant shifts, driven by the interplay of global powers, regional alliances, and emerging international orders.
The New International Order and Asia’s Role
Timofey Bordachev highlights forming a new international order characterized by a conflict between established powers and emerging forces, notably between the West (including the US and its European allies) and rising powers like China and Russia.
This struggle is central to the evolving role of Asia and Eurasia in global politics. The vast and diverse region has shown resilience to the conflicts and crises that have embroiled Europe and the Middle East.
A key aspect of this resilience is the absence of opposing military and political alliances in Asia and Eurasia. Unlike the West, where conflict often seems the preferred method of resolving disputes, Asia and Eurasia lean towards peaceful resolution.
This peaceful inclination stems from a unique political culture and the trend of international interactions focusing more on development goals and internal stability rather than aggressive posturing against other countries.
Timofey Bordachev also underscores the absence of significant “agents” of extra-regional powers within Asia, with Japan and South Korea being possible exceptions due to their security dependence on the US. However, these relationships do not necessarily translate into aggressive policies towards their neighbours.
In contrast, the EU’s strategies, particularly towards Russia, seem more confrontational.
The article further discusses the complexities of relations between India and China, two regional demographic giants. Despite border issues, they avoid escalating their conflict into a systemic confrontation, choosing cooperation within frameworks like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
BRICS Expansion and Global Shifts
In 2023, the expansion of BRICS was a notable event, reflecting a shift in global dynamics. Bordachev argues that this expansion is a response to the diminishing influence of the West, which, despite losing ground, is not receding quietly. Including diverse nations like Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia in BRICS signifies a collective effort to revise the post-Cold War international order, which was deemed unfair by these countries.
The weakening of Western consolidation has led to increased internal discipline within its alliance, with the US reaping the most benefits. This situation has implications for international security and the global economy as the West struggles to accept new realities and adapt to changing global trends.
Globalization vs. Autarky and Russia’s Role
Timofey Bordachev examines the tension between globalization and autarky, a theme evident in recent global developments.
Once a champion of globalization, the US has begun dismantling the system it helped create, pressuring Russia and China and pushing countries to reconsider their reliance on the global economy. This shift directly impacts Russia, forcing it to balance its market economy needs and the push for self-reliance.
The Road Ahead
Bordachev envisions continued cooperation over competition for Asia and Eurasia, with regional powers reaching fair terms with their smaller partners. However, extra-regional influences, notably the US, continue to pose challenges. In this context, stabilizing these influences will be crucial for regional-international cooperation.
In conclusion, Bordachev’s analysis paints a picture of a world in flux, with Asia and Eurasia at the centre of these changes.
The expansion of BRICS and the evolving dynamics within Asia signify a shift away from a Western-dominated order towards a more multipolar world. Amidst these shifts, Russia faces the challenge of navigating these changes while maintaining its national interests and fostering cooperation with regional and global partners.
Sources
- RT (3 Jan, 2024): As the new international order takes hold, what can we expect from China and the rest of Asia in 2024?
- RT (4 Jan, 2024): BRICS expansion was the most important foreign policy event of 2023, what will match it in 2024?